Climate Change: India may see loss of $6 trillion by 2050; top 5 sectors to be most hit account for over 80% of GDP

This translates into monetary losses of over $ 6 trillion in present value terms. In such a scenario, the economic losses induced by climate change for India would amount to nearly $ 35 trillion over the next half of the century.

With the impact of climate change becoming visible through erratic weather patterns, analysts have pointed out that unmitigated global warming can lead to monetary losses of around $ 6 trillion by 2050 for India. On the other hand, if the current trend of substantial investment in emission reduction efforts continues, it could generate economic gains of nearly $ 11 trillion for the country’s economy by 2070.

The Indian economy is highly exposed to the damage caused by climate change. Over the next 50 years, the five industries most likely to be most affected by climate-related losses are services, manufacturing, retail and tourism, construction and transportation, which currently account for more 80% of the country’s GDP. Climate change is also expected to reduce the reliability of seasonal agricultural production, affecting the income of the sector which accounts for around 16% of the country’s GDP.

A recently released Climate Action and Economic Futures report by Deloitte pointed out that if an emission pathway is pursued where average global warming increases by more than 3 ° C by 2070, it “would result in economic losses. over $ 6 trillion in present value. terms by 2050 – or about 6% of India’s GDP in 2050 alone ”.

This translates into monetary losses of over $ 6 trillion in present value terms. In such a scenario, the economic losses induced by climate change for India would amount to nearly $ 35 trillion over the next half of the century.

To avoid such a situation, the country would have to forgo some short-term economic development in favor of large investments in sustainable technologies until 2030. and the world will inherit, ”the report notes. On the other hand, “our modeling shows that rapid decarbonization could generate economic gains of nearly $ 11 trillion (in present value terms) for the Indian economy by 2070,” the report says.

India plans to have 450 giga-watts (GW) of renewable energy capacity installed by 2030, up from 100 GW currently. Global investment in new clean energy capacity is expected to exceed $ 10 trillion by mid-century. Due to the country’s efforts to increase the share of renewables in the energy basket, the President’s special envoy for climate, John Kerry, recently called India a “hot investment opportunity”.

The country has already reduced the intensity of CO2 emissions by 28% from 2005 levels, said Union Energy Minister RK Singh. The target committed in its planned Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change COP21 is a reduction in emissions intensity of 35% from the 2005 level by 2030. The government hopes to exceed its INDC commitments well on schedule, and expects that by 2050, 80-85% of India’s global electricity capacity will come from renewable energy. Including the 46 GW of hydropower plants, 38.5% of the installed power generation capacity in India is currently based on clean renewable energy sources.


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