The present value of 3 solana to cad in July 2024 is around CAD 450 (the unit value for SOL is CAD 150), but options should take into account market volatility, transaction fees and long-term trends. From the volatility of prices perspective, Solana’s 30-day average annualized volatility is 85% (higher than that of Bitcoin at 62%), so that its daily standard deviation of value fluctuation of 3 SOL equals approximately CAD 38.25 (±8.5%). In the event of a 15% drop in the next week (with a historical probability of 21%), the worth of 3 SOL will drop to CAD 382.5. If it rises by 10% (28% probability), it will increase to 495 Canadian dollars. Technical analysis also shows that SOL’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 52, which is neutral. However, the Bollinger Bands have tightened up to 18%, the minimum since December 2023, which shows increased chances of short-term breakout. The direction will determine the 5% to 7% short-term ups and downs.
Transaction costs make a significant contribution to net income: Selling 3 SOL through the Newton platform incurs a 0.7% handling fee (CAD 3.15) and a 0.9% spread (CAD 4.05), resulting in a net arrival of CAD 442.8. Coinbase charges 1.5% (6.75 Canadian dollars) plus two exchange slippage (1.2%) amounting to 12.15 Canadian dollars (2.7% of the principal). If you use the decentralized exchange Jupiter (Solana Chain), the Gas fee is only 0.015 Canadian dollars, but you will need to exchange SOL to USDC and then transfer it to PayPal, which will cost 15 minutes in total. The exchange rate risk will erode 1.5% of the return (around 6.75 Canadian dollars). As per Canadian taxation, income that is held for less than one year will face a maximum tax of 54%. If the 3 SOL costs 300 Canadian dollars, short-term selling needs a tax of 81 Canadian dollars, and the net profit will be cut down to 369 Canadian dollars. In case of being held for more than a year, after-tax return will increase to 413.25 Canadian dollars.
Historical comparisons of cycles indicate 3 SOL was worth CAD 1,050 at the November 2021 bull market high (unit price of CAD 350), but sank to CAD 315 in the FTX sell-off of 2022 (down 70%). The cost now is higher by 150% compared to the 60 Canadian dollars for each SOL when 2023 began but trails behind by 57% relative to the highest price ever recorded. On-chain statistics show that the TVL (Total Locked Value) of the Solana network has rebounded to 4.8 billion US dollars, with the Jito liquid staking protocol accounting for 19%, providing an annual return of 12% (about 54 Canadian dollars) for 3 SOL holders, much higher than Canada’s 2.1% average interest rate on high-interest savings accounts. If invested and rolled over, the three-year compound annual return would be 1,030 Canadian dollars (assuming 12% annual rate).
Security risks need to be quantified: The expense of purchasing hardware wallets (such as Ledger Nano S Plus) is 119 Canadian dollars, which is 26.4% of the current value of 3 SOL, but private key leakage risk can be reduced to 0.01%. The risk of hot wallets (like Phantom) getting hacked is 0.4% (Halborn report) and can result in a loss of 450 Canadian dollars. Centralized exchanges are riskier – The FTX debacle in 2022 resulted in an average loss of cad 3,200 to the users (7.1 exchanges of 3 solana for cad), and 98% of the assets in the case of QuadrigaCX bankruptcy have not been recovered as of now.
Regulatory and liquidity dynamics: Stablecoin issuers are required to hold 100% Canadian dollars under the CSA’s new regulations in 2024, driving a 40% increase in the Solana chain trading volume of USDC and indirectly boosting the demand for SOL as a Gas token. When regulation leads to reducing the exchange SOL reserves by 20% (now 12 million), the price will rise by 8%-12%, and 3 SOLs will now be equal to 486-504 Canadian dollars. On the contrary, if the US SEC regards SOL as a security (as is the case of XRP in 2023 when it was sued), then the price can plummeet by 30% in the short term (see the 26% fall in 24 hours when XRP was sued).
Deep recommendation: Exchanging 3 SOL for CAD is a reasonable choice if one requires immediate cash flow or has low risk tolerance (acceptable loss <10%), but a low-friction facility (such as Kraken Pro, costing 1.02%) must be given the highest priority. For long-term investors, holding and staking will yield a 12% annualized return. Further, the Solana Firedancer upgrade in 2025 will increase the TPS to 1 million, potentially driving up the price (median appreciation of 35% estimated by Bloomberg six months after the upgrade). Based on the current market condition, the 3 SOL buy-and-hold and sell strategy needs to weigh the short-term price fluctuation (±85 Canadian dollars) against the long-term technical dividend (potential appreciation to 607.5 Canadian dollars).